AFL Brownlow Medal Preview

1

In what promises to be one of the most hotly contested finish in recent years, here is Blindside Sport’s Brownlow Medal guide for 2013.

The votes were compiled by analyzing 3 pieces of data: The AFL coaches voting for best on ground, the Club best on ground voting given in each match review and the use of match statistics pertaining to each game. Previous polling experience was also taken into consideration, with plenty of familiar faces appearing to poll well over the course of the season.

AFL.com.au recently released their Brownlow medal preview with Joel Selwood coming out on top with 25 votes, beating heavyweight favourite Gary Ablett on 24 votes.

   AFL projected polls                                             BLINDSIDE projected polls

Ablett 1,5,7,8,9,10,11,17,23  = 24                   1,5,7,8,9,10,11,17,18,23  = 25                               
Selwood 1,2,4,11,15,16,17,20,21  = 25 1,4,11,15,16,17,18,20,21  = 24

 

Our database has the opposite result, with Ablett sneaking home with a 3 vote performance to overtake Selwood in the final round, finishing on 25 opposed to Selwood’s 24.

Not taking anything away from Selwood’s performances this year, but there are a number of factors why Ablett should walk away on Monday evening with a 2nd Brownlow hanging around his neck. Firstly, Ablett continues to stand out in his young Gold Coast Suns team, with few players around him that demand polling attention from umpires.  Dion Prestia and Harley Bennell are the next best placed Suns in our projections, sitting on 7 and 6 votes respectively after much improved seasons. This is in stark contrast to the powerhouse Cats, who have the likes of previous winner Bartel polling 13 votes and the mercurial Johnson also on 13 behind Selwood. Geelong are projected to poll 92 votes compared to the Suns 54, however the spread of players who have performed for Geelong in 2013 is far superior to that of the 15th placed Gold Coast.

 

     AFL 10            Blindside 10

J.Selwood 25 G.Ablett 25
G.Ablett 24 J.Selwood 24
N.Fyfe 23 D.Swan 21
R.Griffen 22 S.Pendlebury 19
D.Swan 22 S.Mitchell 19
L.Hodge 21 P.Dangerfield 19
D.Hannebury 20 D.Hannebury 18
P.Dangerfield 19 K.Jack 18
J.Watson 19 N.Fyfe 18
K.Jack 18 J.Watson 17

 

Browlow Smokies according to AFL.com.au

Luke Hodge  = 21

Dustin Martin = 17

Tom Liberatore = 14

Mathew Stokes = 13

 

Brownlow Smokies according to Blindside Sport

Leigh Montagna = 15

Jarryd Roughead = 15

Jack Ziebell = 13

 

Top 3 each club Blindside Sport

Adelaide:

Dangerfield = 19

Sloane = 9

Douglas, Thompson = 6

Brisbane:

Hanley = 8

Moloney =8

Rockliff = 7

Carlton:

Murphy = 13

Judd = 9

Simpson = 8

Collingwood:

Swan = 21

Pendlebury = 19

Cloke = 10

Essendon:

Watson = 17

Goddard = 10

Stanton, Zaharakis = 7

Fremantle:

Fyfe = 18

Barlow = 13

Mundy = 9

Gold Coast:

Ablett = 25

Prestia =  7

Bennell = 6

GWS:

Cameron = 9

Ward = 7

Shiel = 3

Hawthorn:

Mitchell = 19

Roughead = 15

Hodge = 14

Melbourne:

Jones = 7

Terlich = 3

Grimes = 3

Kangaroos:

Ziebell = 13

Wells = 10

Petrie = 10

Port:

Boak = 14

Hartlett = 11

Wingard, Ebert = 10

Richmond:

Cotchin = 15

Deledio = 14

Martin = 10

St. Kilda:

Montagna = 15

Steven = 11

Riewoldt = 9

Sydney:

Hannebury, Jack = 18

McVeigh = 12

Kennedy = 8

West Coast:

Kennedy = 10

Selwood = 9

Priddis = 8

Bulldogs:

Griffen = 17

Liberatore = 9

Murphy = 5

Share.

About Author

1 Comment

Leave A Reply

Or